In a laudable quest to boost the number of adults with postsecondary credentials, a number of states—including Ohio—are focusing time and treasure on former students who have earned some college credits but have not yet completed a degree. These “some-college-but-no-degree” individuals (SCNDs) are considered to be the easiest to persuade to return and the likeliest to see an economic benefit from completion. A new working paper testing this idea returns some rather disappointing results.
Data for the study come from detailed administrative records for students enrolled in credit-bearing courses at any of the Virginia Community College System’s (VCCS) twenty-three campuses. State unemployment insurance records and the National Student Clearinghouse provide labor force data and information on postsecondary credentials earned at non-VCCS institutions, respectively.
The initial sample comprised 376,366 first-time students who enrolled in VCCS for any length of time between the 2009–10 and 2013–14 academic years but did not complete a credential or degree. Because of their interest in adults who are most likely to return and complete a credential, the researchers restricted their sample to students who had accumulated at least thirty college credits and who had a minimum GPA of 2.0 during the term immediately before leaving VCCS—a relatively high-achieving group as compared to the typical college dropout. The analysts also focused on those who remained out of VCCS for a minimum of three years, as analysis indicated this was a good statistical demarcation between those temporarily leaving college and those whose separation was more likely “permanent.”
The final sample consisted of 26,031 individuals who, believed the analysts, had the greatest potential to finish their post-secondary education. The comparison group, referred to as “Grads,” are students who left VCCS with a degree between the 2009–10 and 2013–14 academic years and had no subsequent enrollment at any other institution within three years of their graduation. (This excluded students who finished an associate degree and went on to a four-year university.) The Grads sample consisted of 28,795 students with demographics similar to SCNDs, although Grads were more likely to be White and female. Grads were also approximately two years older when they left VCCS, and had earned approximately 1.5 times the number of credits than their SCND peers.
Overall, following their separation from the Virginia community college system, SCND individuals were less likely to be employed and, conditional on employment, earned less than students who graduated during the same time period. However, these differences were relatively modest—typically less than 5 percent lower than Grads’ employment or wage mean, after controlling for other observable differences. It is likely that the researchers’ focus on higher-achieving SCND individuals, most of them almost two-thirds of the way to an associate degree, is having an impact on the paper’s employment and earnings outcomes.
SCNDs who remained employed also earned steadily increasing wages over time, characterized by the researchers as a significant disincentive to returning to school. Approximately 50 percent were employed in every quarter of the third year following their departure from community college, and a substantial majority (approximately 80 percent) were working in fields where the earnings differential between Grads and SCNDs was narrowest. Even among SCND students whose earning differential was widest compared to Grads—those who might want to return to better their earning potential—the vast majority were working in healthcare-related fields. Those majors are typically oversubscribed in community college, creating another strong disincentive for those SCNDs to return even if they wanted to.
Collectively, these employment, wage, and enrollment patterns suggest to the authors that there are relatively few SCNDs (approximately 3 percent) who could easily re-enroll in fields of study and reasonably expect a sizable earnings boost upon finally completing a degree. These findings mitigate against the extensive efforts of some states to convince SCNDs to return. However, while this is likely true as far as this study goes, other such analyses have gone farther. In those studies, by including shorter-term credentials and four-year degrees as outcome measures, both the number of SCNDs who stand to benefit from additional postsecondary education and the possible premium to be earned appear larger.
As long as the focus remains set on the best possible outcome for SCND individuals—rather than simply having folks earn credentials for its own sake—the wider the options for completion, and the more substantial the support to get there, the better.
SOURCE: Kelli A. Bird, Benjamin L. Castleman, Brett Fischer, and Benjamin T. Skinner, “Unfinished Business? Academic and Labor Market Profile of Adults With Substantial College Credits But No Degree,” Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis (January 2022).
