A new study by the Learning Policy Institute examines past and current trends in the teacher workforce to predict future educator supply levels. The study also examines motivations behind teacher attrition and suggests several policy options to mitigate the effects of teacher shortages.
The report pulls from several databases to analyze the current teaching job market. Using data from 2011–12 and 2012–13, it predicts trends in teacher supply and demand levels through the year 2025 and argues that shortages will sharply increase over the next ten years. While LPI’s study provides valuable information, the authors caution that their predictions cannot take into account future policy decisions, changes in the economy, or other unforeseeable events.
During the Great Recession, demand for teachers decreased as class sizes expanded and teaching vacancies went unfilled due to large cuts in school budgets. By 2014, however, demand quickly began to rise—schools started to return to pre-recession teacher-pupil ratios, programs cut during the recession were restored, and student enrollment levels were predicted to grow after remaining stagnant for several years. Since then, districts have struggled to find enough teachers to staff their schools. Rural schools as well as schools with high-minority and high-poverty student populations report finding it especially difficult to hire and retain qualified teachers. The report estimates that over the next ten years, the demand for qualified teachers will rise to unprecedented levels, and by 2025 nearly 316,000 teachers will be needed to fill our schools—almost double the demand in 2012.
Obviously, increased demand for teachers wouldn’t be an issue if the supply of educators also increased. Unfortunately, the report finds that the number of potential teachers available to fill classroom vacancies has steadily declined since 2009 and will continue to drop in future years. Between 2009 and 2014, enrollment in traditional teacher preparation programs decreased by 35 percent. While this decline is predicted to slow, it is unlikely that enrollment numbers will ever return to pre-2009 levels. At this rate, supply levels have no chance of catching up with the increasing demand for qualified teachers.
The authors identify attrition—specifically pre-retirement attrition—as the number-one cause of teacher shortages. LPI reports that of the 238,310 teachers who exited the profession in 2011–2012, about two-thirds of those left to find jobs in other industries. Only 31 percent of exiting teachers list retirement as their main motivation for leaving. The majority leave due to job dissatisfaction, career changes, personal needs, or the desire for a higher salary and better benefits.
The report suggests four long-term policy solutions that will attract new teachers, retain current teachers, and over time resolve the teacher demand and supply imbalance.
- Provide teachers with extra incentives and more competitive compensation packages.
- Increase teacher education opportunities and make education programs more affordable.
- Increase teacher retention through mentoring programs and improved work environments.
- Develop a national labor market that supports teacher mobility and draws attention to districts where qualified teachers are needed.
LPI’s report draws attention to an important issue. However, to put it mildly, not all education policy organizations agree with LPI’s conclusions. The National Council on Teacher Quality argues that painting teacher shortages as a national issue diverts attention from localized teacher supply needs. NCTQ explains that rather than facing a national teacher shortage, teacher shortages are found within specific disciplines (STEM and special education, for example) and in specific geographic regions. Meanwhile, in many states, other teaching areas—such as elementary education—report a surplus of teachers entering the profession every year.
Furthermore, Chad Aldeman, a principal at Bellwether Education Partners, questions LPI’s estimates of the current and future national teacher supply. The lack of a national labor market for teachers makes it incredibly difficult to estimate the demand for teachers nationwide. Aldeman argues that national statistics aren’t helpful in determining local demand for teachers because each state—and many districts and schools—have a unique set of qualifications and requirements for its educators.
Although teacher shortages are far from a myth, the notion that we are approaching a national teacher supply crisis may very well be. If policymakers focus their attention on preventing a possible impending shortage at the national level, then their efforts will be diverted from the real issue—shortages in schools that are underfunded and in rural areas and shortages within specific disciplines. The solutions that LPI suggests would be much more effective if implemented in individual schools and districts—not nationwide. Teacher shortage is certainly an issue that needs to be addressed, but let’s focus on creating local solutions rather than predicting a national catastrophe.
SOURCE: Leib Sutcher, Linda Darling-Hammond, and Desiree Carver-Thomas, “A Coming Crisis in Teaching? Teacher Supply, Demand, and Shortages in the U.S.,” Learning Policy Institute (September 2016).
