Since 2003, Florida has required that schools retain third graders who fail to demonstrate proficiency on the state reading test. A new study by Martin West and colleagues examines the impact of this policy by rigorously comparing the results from students who are just above or below the cutoff for retention. The first cohort to be affected by the new policy entered the third grade in 2002, and West et al. track it through high school graduation. They also track five additional cohorts, the last of which entered third grade in 2008.
Unsurprisingly, they find that the policy increased the number of third graders retained. It started with 4,800 kids in the year prior to the policy introduction (2002) and jumped to nearly twenty-two thousand the next year. The numbers retained have fallen steadily over time, however, as more students have cleared the hurdle. The study’s key finding is that third-grade retention substantially improves students’ reading and math achievement in the short run. Specifically, reading achievement improves for retained students by 23 percent of a standard deviation after one year—and by as much as 47 percent of a standard deviation after two years—when compared to students of the same age. In math, it’s 30 percent of a standard deviation after one year and 36 percent after three years.
Unfortunately, these achievement bumps are short-lived. The effects of third-grade retention on reading achievement are reduced in the third and fourth years and become statistically insignificant in years five and six. In math, the effects are statistically insignificant after six years.
The authors also examined results for students in the same grade versus the same age. The impacts are also positive and manage to persist through middle school, though with the caveat that these estimates also capture the effects of being a year older and receiving another year of schooling.
Finally, they find that retention reduces the probability that students at the cutoff will repeat another grade in the future, although it has no impact on the probability of graduating from high school.
The study uncovers a great deal about retention, but in the end, the practice produces a mixed bag of results—at least in the relatively short term. The authors acknowledge that we still don’t know enough about retention’s long-term benefits. And based on some rigorous studies (particularly in early childhood) that retention boosted downstream metrics like college enrollment and future earnings, it’s a safe bet to assume West and company will be back in Florida in due course.
SOURCE: Guido Schwerdt, Martin R. West, and Marcus A. Winters, "The Effects of Test-Based Retention on Student Outcomes Over Time: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Florida," National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 21509 (August 2015).
