In a previous post, I discussed the probability that Secretary Duncan will have reason to forgo spending down the remaining Race to the Top funding and send money back to the Treasury. Some people think there will be a sufficient number of good applications in round two to make this ?nuclear option? unnecessary.
So let's take a look at the math.
There is about ?$3.4 billion left in the pot. If we consider the top contenders for round two, the most obvious place to start is the set of states (14) that made the finals in the first round but didn't win. Under the new funding rules, they are allowed to ask for a combined $4.5 billion. So no problem getting enough quality applications, right?
Well, in my opinion, most of those states came well short of producing a win-worthy application.
Based on those proposals and legislative events that have transpired since, I think five of those states are in strong position to win (FL, RI, LA, CO, DC). Combined, they can ask for $1.2 billion. That leaves $2.2 billion.
Let's say third-place Georgia wins as well to the tune of $400 million (even though I don't think its application came close to warranting a near-win). That's still leaves $1.8 billion.
The next tier of first round finalists?IL, PA, and SC?have done little to improve their standing since the first competition. Other finalists continue to have big weaknesses, like KY's lack of a charter law and NY's charter cap and evaluation shortcomings.
Now it's possible that a few of these states will craft bolder applications and that a few non-finalists rocket into contention. But, even being generous, I can see the Department having good cause to make awards totaling about $2 billion. That leaves about $1 billion, which means a possible phone call to Secretary Geithner asking if he wants some money back.
Let's hope that my skepticism is unwarranted and states come on strong on June 1. Unfortunately, that may not happen.
?Andy Smarick