Ed Week's Michele McNeil and Lesli Maxwell have made some predictions about RTT finalists. Tom Carroll did likewise. (Finalists should be announced by ED later this week.)
I haven't made it through all of the applications yet so I'm not going to make predictions, but based on those I've read, both sets of guesses are probably pretty accurate (though I think they both have a couple false negatives and false positives).
I do, however, have one other prediction, one hope, and one plug.
Prediction: No pundit will get the finalist list right. I've seen some things in applications that run counter to the convention wisdom. This, combined with the fact that the peer reviewers are bound to interpret things differently than policy wonks, has me convinced that the finalist list will contain a nontrivial number of surprises.
Hope: I hope the finalist list is five or fewer states. Based on what I've seen, states could've done much, much better. The secretary needs to send the message that this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, and that he expects groundbreaking applications.
Plug: My third Stimulus Watch from AEI will be out shortly. It focuses solely on the RTT, reaches a few contrarian conclusions, and includes lots of fascinating (at least to me!) state-level anecdotes. Stay tuned.
--Andy Smarick