The education world is aflutter today. The just-released NAEP math scores aren't so hot, causing handwringing among many policy and research types and a degree of schadenfreude among long-time NCLB critics.
To be sure, the results aren't great, but they certainly don't portend the end of the world. Scores are up in 8th grade but in 4th grade they are flat (virtually all 4th grade group scores are flat too). We need to be concerned that the achievement gap is still with us and that overall learning isn't increasing as rapidly as we would like. But it's important to put these results in context.
NAEP math scores have been increasing consistently since 1990. Had we had 19 years of flat results and one year of increases in one subject, we wouldn't celebrate. Similarly, we shouldn't press the panic button over one year of stalled growth in one subject. Yes, we need to take stock and redouble our efforts, but this is far from convincing evidence that NCLB failed or education reform is doomed.