In 2010, Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce published a report warning that a majority of the nation’s jobs would soon require at least some post-secondary education. In Ohio, the prediction was 57 percent. Six years later, a Lumina Foundation study found that only 43 percent of working-age Ohioans had a post-secondary degree or certificate. Together, these reports pointed to a looming crisis: Unless Ohio ramped up its efforts to offer high-quality training and improve career pathways, businesses would struggle to fill job openings and the state would face cascading economic effects.
To their credit, state policymakers have implemented a plethora of policies aimed at improving the state’s career pathways. But despite these efforts, Ohio’s talent pipeline has only marginally improved. Employers struggle to find employees with the right skills, workers lack access to the training they need to fill open positions, and although high schoolers are eager to explore in-demand job pathways, they largely lack the opportunities to do so. The pandemic exacerbated these issues, but even before Covid, Ohio’s rate of educational attainment was too low to meet employer needs.
What to do? ExcelinEd and Ohio Excels have some ideas, and they offered them in a recently published brief that outlines four recommendations aimed at improving learner outcomes, addressing workforce needs, and increasing economic mobility. The recommendations build on each other, so let’s examine them as steps Ohio should take to build on its previous efforts.
Step one: Evaluate the return on investment of career pathway programs
Ohio has improved its overall data transparency in the last few years. But in education—especially in the education-to-workforce realm—there’s still a ton of inaccessible information. For example, Ohio doesn’t currently link K–12, post-secondary, and workforce outcomes. Without these data, it’s impossible for state and local leaders to determine whether career pathways successfully put learners on track to well-paying jobs in in-demand industries.
To fix this, the brief recommends that Ohio conduct a biennial return on investment (ROI) analysis that would assess both the quality and equity of career pathways. This analysis would allow the state to determine whether pathways are aligned with employer demand; evaluate student participation and outcomes for each program; and determine whether current offerings deliver on federal, state, and local investment. In short, the ROI analysis would become the “north star” by which programs and pathways are evaluated.
Step two: Identify, increase access to, and promote high-quality career and technical education pathways
Right now, Ohio doesn’t have an effective system for identifying which career pathway programs are high quality and offer the most value to students. The state’s quality program review does include a post-program placement indicator and requires the collection and analysis of labor market data, but overall reviews largely focus on outputs—like credential attainment—rather than outcomes, like wages and whether learners are working part or full time.
Once Ohio starts conducting an ROI analysis, though, that will change. The outcomes data provided by the analyses will equip state leaders to identify which programs and pathways are effective and most closely aligned to current workforce needs. From there, leaders can make data-driven decisions about how to boost program quality, where to invest more (or less) funding, and which pathways should be expanded or scaled back. It also opens the door for the state—or an outside entity hired by the state—to closely examine the most effective programs and identify best practices that can be implemented elsewhere.
Step three: Revise career pathway funding to focus on high-value programs and reward student success
If Ohio sets the policy stage by establishing biennial ROI analyses and using the results to identify high-quality pathways, the next step is to strategically dedicate funding to the programs and pathways that offer students (and by extension, the state) the most value. One way to do so is to modify the funding formula to include a student outcomes incentive that rewards high-quality programs and the attainment of valuable credentials.
Another way is to differentiate funding based on programs that are linked to higher-skill, in-demand, and middle- or high-wage occupations. State law tiers career and technical education funding according to specific industries, with priority industries that have the most pressing workforce needs receiving more funding. Although that’s a step in the right direction, the brief argues that it’s better to fund programs based on their links to occupations rather than general industries.
An example offered earlier in the brief illustrates why. According to Ohio’s Top Jobs List, the state has a significant need for home health aides, licensed practical nurses, and registered nurses. All three occupations are part of the health industry, which is considered a priority under the funding rules. But home health aides earn a median salary of only $23,000—the equivalent of approximately $11 per hour—compared to the $46,000 earned by practical nurses and the $68,000 by registered nurses. Thus, although these occupations might be in the same industry, they don’t offer the same value to learners.
Step 4: Strengthen industry credential lists to prioritize high-value credentials
Industry-recognized credentials have the potential to be mutually beneficial to both learners and employers. But a recent study found significant misalignment between the credentials employers demand and those that are promoted by the state. To ensure that credentials live up to their potential—and to build on the improvements that the previous three steps will generate—the brief recommends that state leaders strengthen Ohio’s credential landscape by ensuring that promoted credentials are valuable to employers and students. It also recommends linking promoted credentials to “intentional” pathways into college and career and focusing on outcomes via post-secondary, wage, and employment data.
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Ohio has improved its career pathways by leaps and bounds over the last decade. But there’s still plenty of work to be done and no time to waste. The four steps outlined above could have an immediate impact, especially if the first is incorporated into state law via the current budget cycle. Here’s hoping state lawmakers feel the same.
