Put away your crystal balls—the National Center for Education Statistics has released their projections of education statistics for the next eight years. And they’re worth taking seriously; analyses of previous predictions showed them to be remarkably accurate. So let’s peer into the future: Between 2007 and 2019, K-12 enrollment will see a 6 percent increase overall—mostly coming from a boom in America’s school-aged Hispanic population. While white and black student enrollment will actually decrease, Hispanic student enrollment is projected to increase 60 percent over these thirteen years. In terms of graduation rates: Twenty-one states (including most of the Northeast) will see a decrease in their graduation rates by at least 5 percent, while seventeen states will see an increase by at least the same percentage. NCES further reports predictions on student-teacher ratios, education expenditures, college enrollments, and teacher qualifications. While the projections rely on a host of assumptions external to the education system (like fertility rates and migration), and don’t take political and fiscal climates into account, they’re still fun to explore.
William J. Hussar and Tabitha M. Bailey, “Projections of Education Statistics to 2019 (Thirty-eighth edition)” (Washington, D.C.: National Center for Education Statistics, March 2011).
