In Eastern Ohio and elsewhere across the nation, fracking has had a profound effect on economic activity and labor markets. But has it had an impact on education? According to a new study by Dartmouth economists, the answer is yes: The proliferation of fracking has increased high-school dropout rates—and not surprisingly, among adolescent males specifically. They estimate that each percentage point increase in local oil and gas employment—an indicator of fracking intensity—increased the dropout rates of teenage males by 1.5–2.5 percentage points.
The analysts identify 553 local labor markets—“commuter zones,” or CZs—in states with fracking activity, including Ohio. For each CZ, they overlay Census data spanning from 2000 to 2013 on employment and high school dropouts (i.e., 15–18 year olds not enrolled and without a diploma). The study then exploits the “shock” of fracking—it picked up significantly in 2006—while also analyzing the trend in dropouts. Prior to 2006, dropout rates were falling for both males and females; post-2006, dropout rates for males shot up in CZs with greater fracking activity. (Female dropout rates continued to decline.) Using statistical analyses, the researchers tie the increase in male dropout rates directly to the fracking boom.
This study raises important issues about the work-school decisions that some teenagers face. In the case of fracking, a fair number have opted into the full-time labor market—arguably a rational decision, at least in the short-run. (For such teens, attending school represents a considerable opportunity cost in light of decent wages.) But what if jobs in the oil and gas fields dry up—what are their options then? Have they sacrificed the longer-term benefits of an education for a short-lived windfall?
Perhaps adolescents shouldn’t have to make a premature choice between school and work. Why can’t they have both? Vocational tracks and specialized schools—like the Utica Shale Academy charter school in Eastern Ohio—offer students an opportunity to gain hands-on experience while earning their diploma. For those with an immediate need of a paycheck, policymakers should consider ways to boost paid apprenticeships or promote part-time employment. However accomplished, young people deserve every opportunity to explore the world of work, without sacrificing academics, during their teenage years.
Source: Elizabeth U. Cascio and Ayushi Narayan, Who Needs a Fracking Education? The Educational Response to Low-Skill Biased Technological Change (Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, July 2015)
