Over the past few years, we at the Gadfly have gazed into our crystal balls to predict the biggest, or at least most intriguing, stories of the upcoming year. (Click on the links above to see how we did.) With 2019 now behind us, what should Ohioans expect in the world of education for the coming year? Let the predictions begin!
1. Policymakers will continue to debate school funding, but no consensus will emerge. One of the most-talked-about topics in the past year was school funding, with discussion centered on the proposal put forward by Representatives Bob Cupp and John Patterson. Their plan alters virtually every aspect of Ohio’s funding formula and, fully implemented, it would add at least $1.5 billion per year in state spending. So far, debate has revolved around whether the plan allocates enough funds to high-poverty districts, its method to estimate the cost of educating students, its frosty approach to school choice, and how the state would cover the increased outlays. Although there is almost no chance that the plan will be enacted in 2020—it’s an “off-budget” year for the state—policymakers will continue to scrutinize it, in advance of the 2021 budget cycle. In my view, the overhaul envisioned by the Cupp-Patterson plan faces an uphill climb. Not only does it affect the entire K–12 education system, but due to the sizeable funding increase, it is likely to impact Ohio businesses and citizens who may be asked to shoulder additional taxes. Anything can happen, but here’s my best guess: The proposal will continue to drive a productive debate on funding but by the end the year, legislators will start contemplating some more realistic reforms likely focused on delivering more dollars to high needs students. The chances of this happening will rise if economic indicators start going in the wrong direction.
2. School districts will complain about private-school scholarship programs, but a steadily increasing number of families will avail themselves of these opportunities. The shouting you heard at the end of 2019 wasn’t the Times Square countdown, but a cacophony of district administrators complaining about Ohio’s EdChoice scholarship (a.k.a. voucher) program. Alarmed by a growing list of low-performing public schools, school officials went to the media and torched the state’s “failing schools” voucher model in which students become eligible based on low school ratings. As this piece goes to press, there are Statehouse rumblings about proposed “fixes” that might pacify the outrage. If enacted, they will probably turn down the heat in the near term, but we’ll likely hear the grumblings start all over again in fall 2020 as expanded eligibility for income-based EdChoice kicks in. Often ignored when districts are the prevailing voice on the matter is that parents and students are the main beneficiaries of EdChoice expansions as they are provided a wider range of school options. If the historic upward trend in voucher participation continues, more families will select schools that better match their preferences.
3. Legislators will dump transparent school ratings, but this won’t stop parents from seeking clear, objective information about quality. As someone who has written strongly in favor of transparent school ratings, I do hope this prediction is wrong. But the school associations and teachers’ unions are lobbying hard to eliminate Ohio’s A–F school rating system, which they perceive as too punitive. Of course, most districts and schools do pretty well on the report card, and most schools continue to assign letter grades to their own students. But removing those pesky letter grades, which almost everyone understands, would make it easier to hide any weaknesses in student learning. While their proposals vary in specifics, they usually fall into two camps: 1) use “data dashboards,” a system that displays a blizzard of data but offers no ratings that help users make sense of the data; or 2) water down ratings by using fuzzy, informationally-deficient labels such as “approaching expectations.” Should Ohio move in either direction—and again, I hope it doesn’t—the establishment will rejoice. But parents and communities will be less able to identify quality schools, at least via the state report card. If denied clear and concise data, they might head over to Great Schools, a nonprofit organization that provides its own school ratings. And with the state abdicating its role in assigning ratings, groups here in Ohio might fill the void by creating homespun systems. In the end, the state can weasel out of transparent school ratings, but that doesn’t mean the search for clear information about school quality will end. Instead, the state will merely have lost its ability to set the tone for those ratings.
4. Policymakers will champion career and technical education, but data on student participation and outcomes will be lacking. Heeding calls from the business community for skilled workers, Ohio policymakers have made career-technical training a major priority. That’s great news, not only for adults but also for middle and high school students who are looking to get a leg up in their career preparation. We’re already seeing a few signs that schools are responding. Although the numbers remain low—just 6 percent for the class of 2018—an increasing proportion of students earn industry-recognized credentials while in high school. Yet questions still abound on the career-technical front. For instance, how many students pursue an apprenticeship during high school or participate in other forms of “work-based learning”? How many students take career-technical coursework in their regular high school versus a joint-vocational center, or a college? Which career-tech models produce the best post-secondary outcomes for students? Someone should be tracking, evaluating, and reporting on these type of questions. But alas, like too many initiatives, my suspicion is that career-and-technical education will continue to be largely shrouded in mystery.
5. Exciting new schools will continue to grow. In the realm of new school formation, the much-heralded I Promise school, supported by LeBron James and launched in 2018, generated lots of great media attention for the Buckeye State. The early returns from this Akron-based school are impressive. Happily, it’s not just superstar-backed schools that are opening in Ohio. More under the radar, Ohio’s first “classical” charter public school opened earlier this fall. Located near Toledo, Northwest Ohio Classical Academy advertises a stimulating curriculum (OK, I’m biased having taken Latin and Greek), and it’ll be interesting to track parent demand for this approach to education—not to mention its results. Meanwhile, in the private-school realm, a brand-new startup in Cleveland could offer some lessons for developers looking to go the non-public route. Opening in fall 2019, Garden Christian Academy was featured on Mike McShane’s “cool schools” podcast and, why yes, they will soon accept vouchers. Kudos to all who are working to tirelessly to provide Ohio families with an array of quality, distinctive educational options.
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We’re sure to see other topics garner headlines, including academic distress commissions, educator certification and training, teacher pensions, online learning, and much more. Subscribe to our bi-weekly newsletter to keep up with all the latest developments in Ohio. In the meantime, happy New Year!