As every year does, 2021 began with much optimism. Vaccines were rolling out, businesses were reopening, and the economy was on the mend. But then, as always, reality set in. While most Americans were vaccinated, the pandemic dragged on. The economy continued to pick up, but so did inflation. The year in K–12 education followed a similar pattern.
As every year does, 2021 began with much optimism. Vaccines were rolling out, businesses were reopening, and the economy was on the mend. But then, as always, reality set in. While most Americans were vaccinated, the pandemic dragged on. The economy continued to pick up, but so did inflation. The year in K–12 education followed a similar pattern. As we’ll see from the compilation below, there was disappointing news—most notably around student achievement—but also some significant policy wins that offer hope for a brighter future.
With that, we at the Ohio Gadfly close the books on 2021. Keep up to date with all that’s happening in the new year by bookmarking our blog, following our Twitter account, and subscribing to our biweekly newsletter. Cheers!
Every holiday season, those of us at the Ohio Gadfly try to predict what the new year will bring for education. This year is no exception. With a hectic budget season and a surprising set of local election results in our rearview mirror, as well as an ongoing pandemic riding shotgun, the road through 2022 looks to be pretty eventful. Here are, in no particular order, five predictions about what might be in store for us next year.
1. The pandemic—and its impact on education—will continue to dominate headlines.
It seems like a no-brainer at this point, but it’s worth repeating: The Covid-19 pandemic and its many, many effects will continue to drive the news cycle. It’s still too early to know if and how the Omicron variant will impact schools, but there’s no doubt that district and building leaders will have to continue grappling with health and safety issues like mask mandates and quarantine policies. Staff shortages will likely continue in many places—especially in areas like transportation—and may even be exacerbated as cold and flu season starts in earnest. Perhaps the biggest Covid storyline, though, is how schools will struggle to handle learning loss. The shiny newness of having kids back in person will have worn off come spring, and a harsh reality will fully sink in. Some schools will use summer break to their advantage, but others won’t. And by fall, state and local leaders will have two years’ worth of testing data to pore over. How schools use these data—and how they address learning losses and equity gaps—will likely determine education headlines over the next several years.
2. The state board will select a new state superintendent, but the process won’t be pretty.
After five years at the helm of the Ohio Department of Education, Paolo DeMaria announced in July that he planned to step down. Finding a replacement has already proven to be eventful for the state board, thanks to the unexpected resignation of their first choice for interim superintendent and some increasingly contentious meetings. A nationwide search is underway, which means the possibilities are endless. In practice, though, it’s going to be difficult for the board to agree on someone—they can’t seem to agree on much of anything these days—and it’s unlikely the new superintendent will receive unanimous approval the way DeMaria did. Furthermore, although the state board technically hires the superintendent, other state leaders will be watching and likely offering input. The legislature has taken a renewed interest in the board’s activities, and the governor’s office typically plays a behind-the-scenes role in big decisions like this. Ohio will get a new superintendent in 2022—but the road to get there is going to be rife with drama.
3. Report cards will enjoy a brief honeymoon period.
Next year, after a Covid-caused hiatus, detailed school report cards will return—but this time, they’ll look a little different. In 2021, after years of debate, state legislators finally passed some sensible changes to the report card framework via House Bill 82. The biggest adjustment for parents and taxpayers in 2022 will be saying goodbye to A–F letter grades and hello to a five-star system. Given that the changes passed with overwhelming bipartisan support in both the House and the Senate, it would be fair to assume that the new report card will have a warmer welcome from the education establishment than its predecessor. But with substantial learning losses still lingering, the new system’s increased emphasis on performance index and value-added scores (both of which are determined by state tests), and a long-standing resistance to accountability always waiting in the wings, it’s likely that the honeymoon will be brief.
4. Even with a new funding system in place, money for schools will still be a hot topic.
The headline of this year’s budget was a new school funding system that could eventually cost the state an additional $2 billion a year. For now, though, lawmakers only approved paying for a portion of that price tag—and that means funding conversations will continue into the new year as the legislature gears up for another budget cycle in 2023. Whether to fully fund the new system isn’t the only money issue on the table, though. Next year will mark the first full year that school choice programs in Ohio are directly funded by the state. Hopefully the change will cool some of the misleading rhetoric floating around. Meanwhile, districts and schools still have millions in relief funding from the feds to spend. It’s unlikely that we’ll ever get a detailed accounting of this spending, but it’s possible that some schools are opting to use their funds in creative and innovative ways. 2022 could give us a glimpse of those decisions.
5. The race for governor will be more focused on education than in previous years.
In the fall, Ohioans will once again head to the polls. Several big decisions await them, including a choice for governor. It’s too early to know how primaries will shake out, but right now it seems like the election will be a face-off between incumbent Mike DeWine and either Nan Whaley, the former mayor of Dayton, or John Cranley, the current mayor of Cincinnati. Historically, gubernatorial races haven’t been decided by education policy issues. But the lingering events of 2020—not just the pandemic, but also an increased focus on racial justice and equity issues—are still big talking points in Ohio, especially when it comes to how they impact schools. As a result, the Buckeye State could find itself mimicking Virginia’s most recent election, where voters made education a top priority. Even if education isn’t the deciding factor, though, Ohioans will likely hear far more about it than in years past.
***
And there you have it. Some fresh things are on the horizon—like revised school report cards and new state-level education leadership—but for the most part, many of the familiar faces and issues will be sticking around for another year.
Happy New Year!
Fordham Ohio’s blogging output this year was varied and prodigious. We value each and every one of our readers, whether you find our pieces by following us on Twitter, regularly checking out Ohio Gadfly Daily, or subscribing to our biweekly email newsletter. (But honestly, if we like each other enough at this point, why not just take the plunge and commit to that free subscription?)
As the year ends, let’s take a look at which of our blogs most grabbed the attention of you, our readers.
First up are two vitally important guest blogs:
In February, Ohio State University professors Kogan and Lavertu were among the first to analyze data from the fall 2020 administration of third grade ELA state tests. The results showed huge negative impacts of the Covid pandemic on third graders’ reading achievement. “It is important to recognize,” wrote Kogan and Lavertu, “that school closure is not the only reason student achievement took a hit during the pandemic. In addition to the challenge of adjusting to new and unfamiliar modes of instruction, some children also had loved ones fall seriously ill or even die due to complications from the virus. Many families have also faced financial hardships as unemployment reached record levels.”
Seven months later, Kogan and Lavertu published a sophisticated analysis of spring testing data. Despite a return to in-person learning and learning recovery plans, beefed-up summer school offerings and tutoring, and expanded Wi-Fi access in areas across the state, schools across Ohio still saw steep learning declines among their students.
The researchers pinned much of the negative effects on remote teaching and argued for as much in-person education as common sense safety measures would allow. “But more than simply prioritizing in-person instruction,” they concluded once again, “we must ensure that students, especially those who have suffered the most learning loss, are getting the supports that they need to get back on track.”
*****
In between those two guest pieces was the crunch time of the biennial budget debate in Ohio. Two of our budget analyses captured your attention:
In early June, the Ohio Senate unveiled the education priorities it wished to include in the budget, and they centered strongly on school choice. Some of the initiatives were tweaks of existing programs, such as boosting voucher amounts for thousands of students and providing full funding for Ohio’s quality charter school program.
However, it may have been the new proposals that drew readers’ attention. These included the creation of an ESA program to support afterschool learning, offering tax relief to homeschooling families, and more.
And what education-related changes made the final cut? That was the topic of this, our most-read post published in 2021. The analysis was among the first to dig into the version of HB 110 signed into law by Governor DeWine. It covered charter school and voucher program provisions, tax-related items, and a number of important accountability changes. But the big noise around the Statehouse in 2021 was the school funding formula, and this piece offered a recap of how that debate panned out.
*****
But before all the budget madness, two other issues garnered strong readership early in the year:
At the end of December 2020, the federal government approved a second round of Covid-relief funding, a significant amount of it aimed at helping hard-hit schools across the country. As the new year dawned, the question of how Ohio might spend the nearly $2 billion in Elementary and Secondary School Emergency Relief Fund (ESSER II) dollars loomed large. (A third—and even larger—federal relief package for K–12 education would pass in March 2021.)
“Research and common sense suggest that in-person expanded learning time and high-dosage tutoring would probably give students the best chance of catching up,” Aaron wrote. These, he said, “make sense, given the temporary nature of these funds and the hopefully short-term need for remediation.” However, he warned that districts should be wary of “more permanent expenditures such as across-the-board pay raises or hiring additional full-time staff, which could be difficult to sustain when the emergency dollars dry up.” Nearly a year later, we’re still left wondering how exactly schools are spending these funds and whether they’re being used wisely.
Flying in the face of vocal state and national support for testing, several Ohio lawmakers filed bills in late January to cancel the spring administration of state tests. They cited four main objections, to which we responded point by point.
“To ensure that decisions aren’t being made based on false assumptions,” Aaron Churchill concluded, “we need data about where each student stands against state academic standards.” With accountability waived and students safely returning to school, there was no good reason to cancel exams for another year. Ohio needed to begin its return to normalcy as soon as possible, starting with “solid baseline information about student achievement in the midst of much turmoil.”
Gladly, the tests were not cancelled. And unlike in many other states, Ohio’s schools tested almost as many students as usual, quite an accomplishment in the midst of a pandemic.
*****
HONORABLE MENTION
Of course, the calendar is no deterrent for our dedicated readers. Certain blogs from the past keep racking up big readership for years. Thank you, all. We truly appreciate it. Thus it is that the most-read Fordham Ohio blog in all of 2021 actually comes from November of 2020.
It stands to reason that a piece written shortly after the presidential election didn’t find its full audience until after that elected leader actually took office in January. And the various possibilities for student loan forgiveness floated during the campaign made many people sit up and take notice. While nothing concrete has yet come to pass in regard to the plans described, there’s still a lot of interest in loan forgiveness. If things begin to happen, we can expect this piece to continue to garner attention into 2022.
*****
We will be back on the beat in January, and we look forward to covering the education issues and events that matter to Ohio throughout the next year.
Among the many things that I’ve come to better understand as a new parent is that children’s books are a literary genre of their own. Who knew there’d be board books, peek-a-flaps, and battery-powered books that make sounds? Some books have clever storylines and rhymes. Some have exquisite artwork. They literally come in all shapes and sizes. Child development experts stress the importance of daily reading to infants and toddlers. Good children’s books—ones that both child and parent enjoy—can make reading time all the more fun. With that in mind, here are a few of my favorites from the past year (though they were not necessarily published in 2021). And I’ve learned something else along the way: Our local library is indispensable—because children’s books ain’t cheap!
* * *
* * *
So there you have it—one dad’s favorites of the year. Of course, there are many other lists of excellent choices in children’s literature. No matter what you pick up, keep on reading!
