With the past year now in the books, it’s time to look back. During 2023, we at Fordham wrote extensively about the biggest and most important policy issues of the past year, most of which were debated as part of the state budget process.
With the past year now in the books, it’s time to look back. During 2023, we at Fordham wrote extensively about the biggest and most important policy issues of the past year, most of which were debated as part of the state budget process. Those include Ohio’s bold moves towards scientifically based reading instruction, landmark reforms in the way the state education agency is overseen and led, universal eligibility (with a twist) for private-school scholarship programs, and advances in funding equity for public charter schools. For more about these initiatives, check out this recap of the final budget bill, along with the pieces linked above.
Rather than rehash these policy wins, this lookback offers five data points, and six charts, that provide a picture of the year that was in Ohio education, with a particular focus on the Buckeye State’s sluggish pandemic recovery. It’s a sobering depiction of where students are at, but one that should remind us of the important work ahead to improve education in the new year.
5. Ohio remains in the midst of a school attendance crisis. Following national patterns, absenteeism soared during the pandemic in Ohio. Various reasons help explain the rise, but regardless of cause, the most recent data from 2022–23 reveal that too many students are still missing large portions of the school year. Statewide, just over a quarter of students were chronically absent—i.e., missing the equivalent of eighteen or more days of school. As figure 1 indicates, more than half of students in districts such as Youngstown, Lorain, Columbus, and Cleveland were chronically absent last year. These rates remain much higher than pre-pandemic, and inconsistent attendance is surely making academic recovery harder. Fortunately, advocates have recognized the importance of regular attendance and offered a set of ideas to combat the crisis. State and local leaders should follow their lead and take action in the coming year to ensure students are in the classroom.
Figure 1: Ohio school districts with the highest chronic absenteeism rates, 2022–23
4. College readiness continues to slide. Last fall, the Ohio Department of Education and Workforce released its most recent college-and-career readiness data for the high school graduating class of 2022. Among the data points include the percentage of students achieving college-remediation-free scores on ACT or SAT exams. Achieving these benchmarks indicate that students are prepared for entry-level college coursework and remain important predictors of success in higher education. However, as figure 2 indicates, the state’s remediation-free rate has been on steady decline. Though Ohio has never had a very high remediation-free rate—the highest among recent cohorts is just 27 percent—the percentage sunk to just 20 percent for the class of 2022. The slide began just prior to the pandemic, but has accelerated since then—likely a result of pandemic learning loss. State leaders—and colleges, too—should be concerned that fewer students are exiting high school with the academic skills needed for college coursework.
Figure 2: Students meeting state remediation-free standards on the ACT or SAT, class of 2017 to 2022
3. Social promotion runs rampant with the Third Grade Reading Guarantee in tatters. Under former state policy, schools would have been required to retain third graders who fell short of state reading benchmarks on their 2023 assessments. But via the state budget bill passed in July, lawmakers let schools off the hook for retaining struggling readers. Figure 3 shows the result of this requirement-free year. Statewide, just 1.4 percent of third graders were retained, despite almost one in five scoring “limited”—the lowest achievement level on state exams—on their English language arts (ELA) assessment. The discrepancies are even larger in urban districts. Akron, Columbus, Toledo, and Youngstown waved through virtually every third grader to fourth grade despite large numbers demonstrating severe reading deficiencies. Unfortunately, widespread social promotion is likely to persist. Beginning this school year (2023–24), the legislature (again via budget bill) carved out a Texas-sized loophole that allows schools to promote struggling third graders provided they receive parental sign-off. With little to stop the grade-promotion train, low-achieving students will once again be at-risk of falling through the cracks. As a growing number of studies indicate, they are apt to fare significantly worse as they progress through middle and high school than if they had been held back.
Figure 3: Third grade retention rates versus percentages of third graders scoring “limited,” 2022–23
2. Achievement continues to recover from pandemic lows, but progress remains uneven across grade and subject. One of the most closely watched issues continues to be Ohio’s post-pandemic academic recovery. As has been widely documented, achievement plummeted as a result of the school closings and disruptions during the end of the 2019–20 school year and much of 2020–21. But with in-person instruction returning and billions in federal emergency aid being funneled to Ohio schools, achievement has climbed from pandemic lows. As figure 4 indicates, fourth grade math proficiency has risen from 59 to 67 percent between 2020–21 and 2022–23; sixth grade math proficiency has increased from 46 to 50 percent. But despite those upticks, math proficiency still lags noticeably behind pre-pandemic levels; the same holds true in some (though not all) grades for ELA. Meanwhile, as seen in figure 5, recovery has been less impressive in high school. With the exception of last year’s uptick in algebra I, very little improvement is discernable on recent high school exams.
Figure 4: Proficiency rates on fourth and sixth grade exams
Figure 5: High school proficiency rates on state end-of-course exams
1. The state still has a long way to go to achieve full academic recovery. As a final look at the achievement numbers, figure 6 shows 2022–23 state assessment results by student group in comparison to each group’s pre-pandemic scores from 2018–19. The chart indicates that every student group—and students statewide—still lag their pre-pandemic counterparts. Historically disadvantaged groups (economically disadvantaged or Black or Hispanic students) have the most ground to make up, and students across the board are behind more in math than ELA. Remember, of course, that simply getting back to a pre-pandemic “square one” isn’t exactly cause for celebration, as achievement gaps were unacceptably wide before disaster struck.
Figure 6: Declines in math and ELA performance index scores by student group, 2022–23 versus 2018–19
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During the past year, Ohio leaders advanced a number of policies that can improve schools and boost student achievement. But as these data indicate, the work is far from finished. As we move into the new year, let’s recommit once again to putting student learning and educational excellence at the center of our policy discussions.
At end of every year, we are reminded of how important you—regular readers of our analyses, commentary, reviews, and research—are to us. We appreciate that you find value in the work we do, and we are interested in understanding which topics draw your attention the most.
Here are the top five pieces we published this year, as determined by your clicks:
5. Governor DeWine’s budget takes bold steps forward on charter schools and private school choice (Aaron Churchill, 2/7/23)
It is no surprise that all eyes were on the state budget process this year. That began in February with the release of Governor DeWine’s budget plan. We took a look at three big proposals from the governor related to school choice: boosting the state’s quality charter school fund, increasing the charter facilities allowance, and significantly expanding eligibility for the EdChoice voucher program.
4. Ohio lawmakers should ensure low-income kids aren’t priced out of private schools (Jessica Poiner, 6/22/23)
The expansion of EdChoice was a hot topic in Ohio during the entire budget process. But just before the legislation crossed the finish line, one small but important change became a sticking point: Some lawmakers wanted to do away with a longstanding provision that prohibited private schools from charging low-income families tuition over and above their state-provided voucher amount. We explained in detail how this change would undercut efforts to make private schools more accessible to families and readers took notice. Ultimately, the budget was enacted without that change, thus preserving this important policy.
3. An in-depth analysis of the I Promise School’s troubling academic results (Jessica Poiner, 8/7/23)
Also of continued interest to readers this year: Akron’s I Promise School, championed by basketball superstar (and native son) LeBron James and his foundation. The school, which aims to boost the academic achievement of low-income students of color through a unique comprehensive wraparound services model, is no stranger to headlines. But in August, when Akron City Schools officials publicly discussed the latest state testing results, the troubling numbers drew a firestorm of attention. Fordham’s Jessica Poiner, herself an Akron native, did a calm and analytical deep dive into the testing data, putting the disappointing numbers into context with neither hyperbole nor sugarcoating.
Side note: The Australian Broadcasting Corporation took note of Jessica’s analysis and invited her to be part of their half-hour news feature on I Promise. The full video of that remarkable feature can be viewed here.
2. Ohio’s new school funding formula: An introduction (Aaron Churchill, 1/26/23)
Before the budget season kicked off, Ohio Research Director Aaron Churchill began a multi-part deep dive into the state’s new school funding formula. Enacted during the last budget, the Fair School Funding Formula is complex, dynamic, and—as Aaron would go on to note in future pieces—could use some tweaks. But before digging into those details, part one of the series offered a more general picture of school funding in Ohio. That primer drew our second-highest readership for the year.
1. Ohio lawmakers pass historic policies on charter schools, private school choice, governance, and literacy (Aaron Churchill, 7/10/23)
Not exactly a surprise, given the significance of the legislation, but our highest readership this year came from our big picture analysis of the final state budget bill as signed into law by Governor DeWine. “A landmark budget is now on the books,” wrote author Aaron Churchill in summary. “Schools—from all sectors—will have more resources they can use to provide students with a quality education. Parents can look forward to having a larger set of quality public and private school options at their fingertips. With the promise of more effective instruction and personalized opportunities, more Ohio students will be well prepared for life after high school. Kudos to state lawmakers for making K–12 education a top priority.” An important piece—with long-term implications—for readers to take note of.
HONORABLE MENTION: How senior-year math courses affect college enrollment and persistence (Jeff Murray, 2/28/23)
Short reviews of recent and relevant education research have been a staple of Fordham’s output for years. And while generally not super tempting clickbait, we are proud to highlight important work going on in the world of research. And once in a while, a surprising topic will grab readers’ attention. In February, we took a look at a paper from UCLA’s Los Angeles Education Research Institute that examined mathematics course-taking among LAUSD highschoolers, showing that those who took a math course as seniors—any course, required or not—enrolled in college at higher rates than their non-math-taking peers and persisted for longer in college when they got there. The best part: LAUSD Superintendent Alberto Carvalho had already announced by February that he planned to act on the findings to help incentivize students to go further with their mathematics education. It’s no wonder that readers’ clicks “added up” on this review.
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Thanks, as always, for your dedicated readership in 2023. We promise there are more great posts ahead in the new year, and hope you’ll stick around to check them out!
Fordham’s published work is guided by a number of longstanding precepts, including detailed policy analysis, speaking out on behalf of families and students, filling research gaps, challenging misconceptions, and highlighting education issues being discussed by state leaders. Sometimes our analyses and commentaries tap into timely subjects and draw significant attention from readers. At other times, pieces are less well-noticed even though they shine needed light on issues that are important to Ohio schools and students.
In case you missed them, here were a few Fordham gems from 2023 that might have flown under your radar:
As chronic absenteeism rates soar, some Ohio lawmakers want to make it easier for kids to skip school, by Jessica Poiner
It is for very good reason that Fordham’s mascot is a Gadfly. This piece was crafted in response to a proposed legislative amendment that would have lowered expectations around student attendance. Author Jessica Poiner expertly used data to show how the change was merely an effort to “hide the ball” and clearly explained why it would hurt students in the long run if enacted. (So far, policymakers have followed her advice.)
New state data offer tantalizing clues about Ohio’s teacher shortages, by Jessica Poiner
For years, discussions of teacher shortages in Ohio and elsewhere have been fueled by anecdotes and unsubstantiated claims. We have written about the issue along the way, but this piece marked the first time that Ohio education officials made hard data available for analysis regarding the number and types of teachers leaving and entering the profession in the Buckeye State over time. “Overall, the picture painted by these data points is of a profession under strain,” Jessica concluded. “Some are likely to say that more money is the solution. And while dollars can certainly help, we also need to think more comprehensively about how to make teaching a more attractive profession to young people, how to encourage mid-career professionals to enter the classroom, and how to ensure that our best teachers stay right where they are.”
Do Ohio’s teacher preparation programs follow the science of reading? How stronger teacher preparation and curricula policies can ensure scientifically based reading instruction in Ohio, by Shannon Holston, with a foreword by Aaron Churchill
This research conducted by the National Council on Teacher Quality (NCTQ) took a close look at Ohio’s teacher preparation programs—specifically, whether their training follows the science of reading. The results were a mixed bag overall, with some programs strongly aligned and others falling far short. In an Akron Beacon-Journal op-ed, we discussed the implications of this study: “These important reforms could be undermined if teacher preparation programs…improperly train aspiring educators. If teachers enter the classroom ill-prepared in the science of reading, they will struggle to teach children to read effectively. They will also need expensive retraining. Some might even choose to quit out of frustration, something that could worsen staffing shortages in various parts of the state. For the good of students and future educators, institutions of higher education need to align their instruction to the science of reading.” Happily, legislators added provisions to Governor DeWine’s literacy proposal that requires teacher prep programs to revamp their approach to reading instruction.
The social and emotional damage of socially promoting struggling readers, by Jessica Poiner
Data and analysis are the foundation of Fordham’s published work, but sometimes firsthand knowledge is required to fully translate numbers and trendlines into ideas that everyone can relate to. This piece, written by a former high school English teacher, details how social promotion—moving students forward into a higher grade when they aren’t academically ready—can lead to frustration, anger, sadness, and despair in young people. Bullying, tearful outbursts, and dropping out are real outcomes of what seems like a benign policy issue.
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Looking back on 2023, there was a wide spectrum of stories in K–12 education policy to cover. Some made headlines, but others—no less important—didn’t receive the same amount of attention. Going into 2024, you can count on us to offer our thoughts and analyses on both the big and small debates in education in Ohio.
It’s the start of another year, and that means it’s time for us at the Ohio Gadfly to predict what awaits in the next twelve months. In light of last year’s historic budget bill, there’s plenty on the agenda. But we also expect there to be a few surprises along the way.
Here are, in no particular order, three predictions about what might be in store this year.
1. Science of reading implementation will continue to dominate the headlines.
The talk of the education town last spring was a sweeping effort to establish a roster of important early literacy reforms that would ensure Ohio schools are using curricula, materials, and instructional practices aligned with the science of reading. The good news is that this legislative effort was mostly successful. (Attempts to defend Ohio’s retention requirement were, alas, unsuccessful, but that’s another story.) Now that these reforms are in place, it’s time for the real work to begin.
We expect the newly established Department of Education and Workforce (DEW), led by governor-appointed director Steve Dackin, to have a list of approved, high-quality, science-of-reading-aligned curricula and materials published within the first two months of 2024. Doing so will be crucial, as districts are required to use curricula and materials from the approved list this fall. We also expect that, this spring, the Ohio Department of Higher Education will release their initial summaries of the reading instruction strategies and practices being used in each of the state’s teacher preparation programs.
Obviously, neither of these is a bold prediction. They are, after all, required by law. But how districts and preparation programs respond to these actions matters, and that is far more uncertain. We’d like to predict that districts will recognize the importance of high-quality curricula and materials and won’t hesitate to adopt something off of the state’s list; that they will welcome state-assigned reading coaches with open arms and eagerly take advantage of the state funding available for professional development. We’d also like to predict that teacher preparation programs will recognize the importance of effectively training prospective teachers, and that the state’s summaries of their practices will inspire change as needed.
Unfortunately, the implementation outlook is hazy, and thus we can’t—and won’t—make those predictions. Although state officials will surely do what they’re required to do, we predict that there will be districts and preparation programs that drag their feet. Several districts will take advantage of a loophole allowing them to request a waiver to use discredited instructional methods. Several preparation programs will ignore the need to overhaul their programs in the hope that no one will notice if they just keep doing what they’ve always done. To combat this quiet resistance, we expect state leaders to push back, and advocacy groups to closely monitor implementation, call out problems, and suggest solutions.
2. The new department will put the W in DEW.
Early literacy wasn’t the only marquee item in last year’s budget. The legislation also overhauled K–12 education governance by shifting the majority of duties previously held by the State Board of Education to the newly renamed Department of Education and Workforce. The department will have its hands full with early literacy, ongoing pandemic academic recovery efforts, and the recent expansion of school choice options. But in keeping with its new name, it’s a sure bet that one of the primary points of emphasis will be workforce readiness.
Specifically, we predict that the department will increase its emphasis on expanding work-based learning opportunities, increasing industry-recognized credential attainment, ensuring that credentials are meaningful and valuable, and improving transparency around student outcomes data. Fortunately, Director Dackin is well suited to take on this challenge. During his testimony before the Senate in December, Dackin noted that when he was superintendent of Reynoldsburg City Schools, the district developed one of the nation’s largest STEM pipelines for students, serving more than one-third of the district’s students. He also previously served as the chair of the Youth Committee of the Workforce Development Board of Central Ohio. Under Dackin’s experienced leadership, the department will surely get off to a great start putting the W in DEW.
3. Chronic absenteeism will continue to be a big deal.
Over the course of the pandemic, student absenteeism skyrocketed. In 2018–19, the statewide chronic absenteeism rate was 16.7 percent. In 2021–22, it jumped to 30 percent before dropping to just below 27 percent during the 2022–23 school year.
State and local leaders have responded to these troublingly high numbers in ways that range from excellent to less than helpful. On the excellent side of the spectrum, the Stay in the Game! Network is helping improve attendance in a few districts and charter schools. And in early November, Ohio’s Attendance Taskforce released a series of important recommendations aimed at improving prevention and early intervention efforts. On the other side, some lawmakers—undoubtedly with encouragement from the field—have actually sought to make it easier for students to miss school by establishing a questionable list of “legitimate excuses” for student absences despite the disastrous long-term effects of absenteeism.
Over the course of 2024, we predict an ongoing battle similar to the one in 2023. Those who recognize the important role attendance plays in student success will continue to seek ways to improve prevention, identification, and intervention efforts. Those who have priorities other than student success—like looking good on ratings—will renew their efforts to make skipping school easier, and will double down on attempts to make it harder to transparently track absenteeism data. As for the statewide chronic absenteeism rate, look for it to slightly—but not substantially—improve in light of efforts to raise awareness about the importance of attendance.
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And there you have it. 2024 seems poised to mimic 2023 in some big ways, but there’s also plenty of opportunities for things to be better. Here’s hoping they are. Happy New Year!
